Free tool
Chance of winning a giveaway
Organizers almost never publish how many people enter. This calculator shows what to expect in different scenarios and how many times you would need to enter for winning to be realistic.
- Instant result
- Compared scenarios
- Expected value
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Your inputs
If you do not know how many people enter, try several figures: the scenarios table compares them for you.
Result
Each square stands for 1% probability.
Scenarios with your winners and entries
Estimates only, not advice. Everything is calculated in your browser: we do not send or store what you type. Assumes every entry has equal chances and winners are distinct. Some formats (instant win, points, votes) do not follow this model.
How it is calculated
With N entries, W prizes and E entries of yours, the chance of not winning is the product of (N − E − i) / (N − i) for i from 0 to W − 1. The chance of winning is one minus that. If you enter k independent draws, the chance of winning at least once is 1 − (1 − p)k.
How to read the result
A small chance per draw is not bad news if entering takes little effort. What matters is the cost: entering without buying anything in a few seconds has a positive expected value, however small; buying a product only for the draw usually has a negative one. Before entering check whether the promotion requires a purchase in entry formats.
Frequently asked questions
Why do you not know how many enter?
Organizers rarely publish it and it changes until the last day. That is why the calculator works with scenarios.
Does entering more often really help?
Only if entries count separately, as in daily-entry giveaways. If the rules limit it to one per person, repeating adds nothing and may disqualify you.
What is expected value?
It is probability times prize value, minus what it costs to enter. It is a long-run average, not a prediction.
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